MAY 27, 2026
U.S. military contractors need at least three years to replenish advanced weapons used in Iran war, CSIS analysis finds
A new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, released Wednesday, finds that U.S. military contractors need at least three years to replenish stockpiles of Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptors, and THAAD interceptors depleted during the Iran war. The report warns that diminished inventories have created "a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict." The Trump administration's proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal year 2027 accelerates spending on these systems, but the report's authors say the core problem is time, not money.
The CSIS report, co-authored by retired Marine colonel and senior adviser Mark Cancian and research associate Chris H. Park, estimates the U.S. fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles during the 39-day bombing campaign against Iran. Full replenishment of the prewar Tomahawk inventory is not projected until late 2030 or early 2031, with fewer than 200 produced annually in recent years against an agreed goal of 1,000 per year. More than 1,000 Patriot interceptors are expected to be replenished by mid-2029, while up to 290 THAAD interceptors used during the war are projected to be replaced by the end of 2029.
The report traces the stockpile shortfall to strategic assumptions made after the Cold War, when the Pentagon anticipated short, regional conflicts and ordered relatively low numbers of high-end munitions. Cancian told the Associated Press that Russia's war in Ukraine revealed the need for deep inventories, and that building them up requires expanding a complicated web of supply chains and subcontractors. He said the Biden administration deserved credit for beginning conversations with the defense industry and investing in production capacity, while noting that the Trump administration has significantly increased funding.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Pentagon have pushed back on the report's framing. Hegseth told House appropriators that the characterization of depleted munitions was "foolishly and unhelpfully overstated," stating the military has "all the munitions needed to execute what we need to execute." Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the military "has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President's choosing." Hegseth has said replenishment could take "months and years, depending on the weapon system," and described efforts to scale up the defense industrial base to exceed prewar levels.