MAY 27, 2026
US military contractors need at least three years to replenish key weapons stockpiles depleted in Iran war, analysis finds
A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, released Wednesday, estimates that US military contractors need at least three years to replenish stockpiles of Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptors, and THAAD interceptors depleted during the Iran war. The report warns that the drawdown has created a "window of vulnerability" for a potential future conflict in the Western Pacific. The analysis was conducted by retired Marine colonel and CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancian and research associate Chris H. Park.
The United States fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles during the Iran war and used roughly 1,060 to 1,430 Patriot interceptors and as many as 290 THAAD interceptors to defend against incoming Iranian drones and missiles, according to the CSIS report. The analysis estimates that Tomahawk stockpiles will not be fully restored to pre-war levels until late 2030 or early 2031, Patriot inventories until mid-2029, and THAAD interceptors until the end of 2029. The report attributes these long timelines to historically low procurement rates — an average of just 86 Tomahawks per year over the past decade — and a limited manufacturing footprint that takes time to expand.
The CSIS report frames the stockpile gap primarily as a China risk. It notes that Beijing has stated a goal of having its military capable of taking Taiwan by force by 2027, and that Chinese President Xi Jinping warned this month that mishandling relations over Taiwan could lead to open conflict with the United States. The report also offered a partially reassuring note, writing that China "has no recent combat experience" and performed poorly in its 1979 war with Vietnam, suggesting that US combat experience from the Iran campaign may preserve deterrence while inventories are rebuilt.
The Trump administration's proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal year 2027 — described by both sources as historic — significantly accelerates spending on high-end munitions, a trend that began under the Biden administration. Manufacturer Raytheon has a goal of producing more than 1,000 Tomahawks per year, up from fewer than 200 currently, and Lockheed Martin has announced a deal to quadruple THAAD production from 96 to 400 annually and said it is investing $9 billion through 2030. The report's co-author told the Washington Examiner that "there aren't many near-term actions that can be done to fix the problem in the near term" and that a sustained commitment extending beyond the current administration would be required.