JUNE 4, 2026
Niskanen Center study finds National Guard deployment reduced property crime in D.C. but had little effect on violent crime
A new analysis from the nonpartisan Niskanen Center found that President Trump's National Guard deployment in Washington, D.C. reduced opportunistic property crimes by roughly 24% but had little to no effect on violent crime. The study was published weeks after federal officials announced plans to double the number of troops in D.C. to 5,000 this summer as part of a "summer surge" ahead of America's 250th birthday celebrations. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the current deployment costs the federal government approximately $1.5 million per day.
President Trump deployed the National Guard to Washington, D.C. last August under what the administration called the Safe and Beautiful Task Force, described as an effort to reduce crime and improve conditions in the city. The task force combines National Guard members with hundreds of federal law enforcement officers — including immigration enforcement agents — operating alongside local police. As of the study's publication, approximately 2,800 Guard members drawn from D.C. and about a dozen states with Republican governors were deployed in the city.
The Niskanen Center analysis found that the Guard's "high visibility patrols" around federal property, residential areas, parks, and Metro stations produced a measurable 24% drop in opportunistic crimes such as property offenses and vehicle break-ins. However, researchers found no statistically significant effect on violent crimes, including robberies, which were already declining before the current administration took office. Researchers also noted that the deployment's stated goal of freeing up D.C. police to redeploy to higher-crime areas had generally not materialized.
Study co-author Richard Hahn told NPR that the deployment was "not a failure" but described the Guard as a "blunt and expensive instrument," adding that comparable or better outcomes could potentially be achieved at lower cost through more targeted policing strategies. Researchers' own language in the report characterized the Guard's impact as a "massive, sudden shock from the visible presence of uniformed military personnel."