JUNE 29, 2026
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas working paper links unauthorized immigration surge to higher home prices and rents between 2021 and 2024
A working paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that a 1% increase in unauthorized immigrant worker flows was associated with roughly a 2.2% rise in local home prices and a 1.4% rise in rents. The paper drew on individual immigration court records and government administrative data to examine the period from March 2021 to March 2024. The authors noted the paper is a preliminary draft and that its findings do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
A working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas examined the economic effects of the surge in unauthorized immigration between 2021 and 2024, finding that increased migrant worker inflows raised housing costs in local markets while expanding employment with little measurable effect on wages.
Researchers found that unauthorized immigrant worker inflows raised local employment "approximately one-for-one," meaning a 1% increase in unauthorized workers relative to a local area's workforce corresponded with roughly a 1% increase in overall employment. The study found no evidence that the surge lowered average wages.
The same 1% increase in unauthorized worker flows was associated with a roughly 2.2% rise in local home prices and a 1.4% rise in rents, according to the paper. The researchers found little evidence that new housing construction expanded enough to absorb the additional demand, and concluded that unauthorized immigrant worker inflows acted as a housing demand shock in markets where supply was already constrained.