JUNE 30, 2026
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas working paper links unauthorized immigration surge to higher home prices and rents between 2021 and 2024
A working paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that a 1% increase in unauthorized immigrant worker flows corresponded with approximately a 2.2% rise in local home prices and a 1.4% rise in rents. The researchers used individual immigration court records and government administrative data to study the period from March 2021 to March 2024. The authors noted the paper is a preliminary draft circulated for professional comment and that its findings do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas working paper, described by researchers as among the first comprehensive efforts to measure the economic effects of the 2021–2024 unauthorized immigration surge, found that the inflow of unauthorized immigrant workers drove measurable increases in local home prices and rents while boosting employment with little effect on wages.
The paper drew on individual immigration court records and government administrative data. Researchers found that unauthorized immigrant worker inflows increased local employment "approximately one-for-one," meaning a 1% increase in unauthorized workers relative to a local workforce corresponded with roughly a 1% increase in overall employment. The study found no evidence that the surge lowered average wages.
The housing findings were more pronounced. That same 1% increase in unauthorized immigrant worker flows raised local home prices by about 2.2% and rents by roughly 1.4%, according to the paper. The researchers found little evidence that new housing construction expanded enough to absorb the increased demand, characterizing the dynamic as a housing demand shock in markets where supply was already constrained. The authors estimated that unauthorized immigrant worker inflows explained roughly 30% of employment growth, 30% of home-price growth, and approximately 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area over the study period.