AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt state election with 44% of the vote, falling short of an absolute majority

The AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt — an eastern German state — marks the first time the party has won a state election outright and raises the prospect of the first far-right regional government in Germany since the Nazi era, according to NPR. The result was described by Reuters as "a blow to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and a warning to other European leaders" confronting similar political pressures. The AfD was founded in 2013 and has never been part of any state or federal government.

Without an absolute majority, the AfD must seek a coalition partner or attempt to govern as a minority. CNN reported that the party is exploring two potential paths: a deal with the left-wing populist BSW party, which has criticized the mainstream "firewall" against the AfD and shares some of its positions on immigration and Ukraine policy, or support from right-wing factions within the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated he will not permit the CDU to cooperate with the AfD.

At the center of the AfD's Saxony-Anhalt manifesto, which CNN reviewed in detail, is a package of migration measures the party calls "remigration" — the mass deportation of irregular migrants, the expansion of detention facilities, and the return of non-ethnic-German citizens to their countries of origin. The manifesto also calls for the return of Ukrainian refugees, arguing that "large parts of Ukraine are considered safe," according to CNN. NPR reported that deportations under the AfD's plan would extend to those "deemed to be unproductive." Johannes Kieß, Deputy Director of the EFBI Institute for Democracy Research at Leipzig University, told CNN that migration policy is among the most difficult areas for a state government to act on given federal legal constraints, and predicted "a great deal of legal uncertainty and chaos."