Washington Post analysis identifies Hispanic working-class voters in about three dozen battleground House districts as key to 2026 midterm control
A Washington Post data analysis found that roughly three dozen House districts rated as competitive by the Cook Political Report will disproportionately determine which party controls Congress after the 2026 midterms. Those battleground districts, home to about 10 percent of the U.S. population, contain higher shares of Hispanic adult citizens, homeowners, married residents, and small-city dwellers than the country overall. Colorado's 8th District, currently represented by first-term Republican Rep. Gabe Evans, was identified as among the most representative of these demographic patterns.
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A Washington Post analysis, using 2024 five-year American Community Survey data from the Census Bureau, found that battleground House districts share a distinct demographic profile: they over-represent Hispanic adult citizens relative to the U.S. average, and their residents are more likely to be homeowners, to be married, and to live in small cities rather than large metros or rural areas.
To illustrate the analysis, the Post profiled Jen Hernandez, a 43-year-old Mexican American manufacturing worker in Greeley, Colorado, who lives in Colorado's 8th District. Hernandez, a millennial without a college degree who identifies with no political party, has voted for Democrats, Republicans, and third-party candidates in past elections. Her stated concerns include border security, the cost of prescription medications, and grocery prices.
Colorado's 8th District is contested between Republican incumbent Gabe Evans, 40, and Democratic challenger Manny Rutinel, 31. Both candidates are Hispanic millennials from working-class backgrounds, and both have run bilingual advertising campaigns. Evans has appeared on Spanish-language radio and, according to the Post, has at times sought to distance himself from President Donald Trump, whose poll numbers the Post described as near historic lows. Rutinel has pointed to bipartisan work during his time in the state legislature.