Nine Senate races rated as toss-ups or leaners will determine majority control after November midterms
With roughly two weeks until Election Day in the 2026 midterm elections, nine Senate races — six rated as true toss-ups and three as leaners — are expected to determine which party controls the chamber. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. The Fox News Power Rankings project each party winning 47 seats outright, leaving the outcome dependent on the nine competitive contests.
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The nine competitive Senate races span states across the political spectrum, with Republicans defending six of the six toss-up seats and Democrats defending two of the three leaner-rated contests, according to the Fox News Power Rankings. Analysts note the overall battlefield has expanded, particularly into traditionally red territory.
Republicans face structural headwinds typical of a midterm cycle: the party holding the White House has historically lost seats in off-year elections. Fox News coverage also noted that persistent inflation, high gas prices, and President Donald Trump's approval ratings are contributing to a challenging political environment for the GOP.
The six toss-up races, per Fox News Power Rankings, are Alaska (Sen. Dan Sullivan vs. Democratic challenger and former Rep. Mary Peltola), Iowa (Rep. Ashley Hinson vs. Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst's seat), Maine (Sen. Susan Collins vs. former state Senate President Troy Jackson), Ohio (appointed Sen. Jon Husted vs. former Sen. Sherrod Brown), Texas (state Attorney General Ken Paxton vs. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for the seat of retiring Sen. John Cornyn), and Michigan (Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed vs. former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers).