The Divide · October 18, 2026
Nine Senate races rated as toss-ups or leaners will determine majority control after November midterms
With roughly two weeks until Election Day in the 2026 midterm elections, nine Senate races — six rated as true toss-ups and three as leaners — are expected to determine which party controls the chamber. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. The Fox News Power Rankings project each party winning 47 seats outright, leaving the outcome dependent on the nine competitive contests.
How the coverage split
Fox News framed Republican challenges as primarily structural (midterm headwinds, inflation, approval ratings) while allowing GOP leaders to assert momentum is on their side.
What both sides skipped
This synthesis draws from only one source (Fox News). Independent polling averages, fundraising totals, or assessments from non-Fox analysts for each of the nine races were not included in the supplied coverage and cannot be verified here.
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